Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: B6 375 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day B6 375 PHL 06:00 → FLL 08:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 2462 PHL 18:26 → FLL 21:14 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 375 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 06:00	FLL 08:47	6%	2%	0.6%	71%
F9 4455 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 12:00	FLL 14:57	13%	4%	0.9%	74%
AA 2718 American	PHL 13:31	FLL 16:27	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2462 American	PHL 18:26	FLL 21:14	18%	5%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON