Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OH 5341 PSA	PHL 10:26	GRR 12:31	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 5493 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 21:50	GRR 23:58	10%	3%	0.8%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	3h 07m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → GRR 12:50UA 1297	6h 50m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547	6h 28m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15DL 1391	3h 33m Detroit	DTW 22:48 → GRR 23:51DL 4880 · flown by Endeavor	6h 23m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 12:44 → GRR 13:45DL 5390 · flown by Endeavor	3h 59m	95%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058	6h 34m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 08:25 → GRR 10:53DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest	5h 13m	95%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → GRR 21:51DL 2210	7h 19m	99%	88%
American Details →	PHL 12:51 → ORD 14:12AA 1854	2h 58m Chicago	ORD 17:10 → GRR 19:20AA 4729 · flown by Republic	6h 29m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON