Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day PT 5925 PHL 08:23 → GSP 10:17 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5618 PHL 17:48 → GSP 19:49 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 5925 Piedmont	PHL 08:23	GSP 10:17	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
PT 6119 Piedmont	PHL 08:40	GSP 10:23	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
PT 5840 Piedmont	PHL 13:19	GSP 14:58	13%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 5618 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 17:48	GSP 19:49	20%	8%	0.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON