tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 6235 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record PHL 10:39 IAD 11:55 14% 2% 3.4% 86%
UA 4587 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record PHL 19:45 IAD 21:10 16% 13% 11.4% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 10m Chicago ORD 08:40 → IAD 11:52UA 2277 5h 52m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 7h 36m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 6h 22m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540 1h 02m Detroit DTW 08:50 → IAD 10:23DL 2884 4h 13m 96% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968 3h 37m Detroit DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787 6h 55m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHL 15:38 → MSP 17:37DL 2679 2h 13m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 7h 42m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 7h 52m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → PHL 09:19 → ORD 10:28UA 1811 2h 38m Chicago ORD 13:06 → IAD 16:13UA 1128 6h 54m 99% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON