Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 584 PHL 06:15 → IAH 08:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 889 PHL 20:07 → IAH 22:16 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 584 United Flight history →	PHL 06:15	IAH 08:44	5%	2%	0.5%	95%
UA 2038 United Flight history →	PHL 13:04	IAH 15:35	9%	3%	0.5%	87%
UA 2474 United Flight history →	PHL 18:06	IAH 20:25	9%	3%	0.5%	85%
AA 840 American	PHL 08:41	IAH 11:23	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2486 American	PHL 13:00	IAH 15:20	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 889 American Flight history →	PHL 20:07	IAH 22:16	14%	3%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON