Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day PT 5821 PHL 20:40 → ILM 22:14 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 5858 PHL 12:24 → ILM 13:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 5821 Piedmont	PHL 20:40	ILM 22:14	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 6133 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 13:16	ILM 15:04	8%	3%	0.8%	83%
PT 6114 Piedmont	PHL 10:34	ILM 12:12	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
PT 5858 Piedmont	PHL 12:24	ILM 13:53	9%	2%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON