Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4796 PHL 08:33 → IND 10:39 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 682 PHL 21:45 → IND 23:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4796 Republic	PHL 08:33	IND 10:39	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 4637 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 18:19	IND 20:45	5%	2%	0.7%	76%
AA 5240 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:45	IND 12:55	8%	2%	0.8%	86%
AA 1436 American	PHL 08:33	IND 10:45	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
OH 5328 PSA	PHL 14:21	IND 16:23	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 682 American Flight history →	PHL 21:45	IND 23:40	13%	3%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON