Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1791 at 08:41 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1791 PHL 08:41 → JAX 11:10 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1970 PHL 21:08 → JAX 23:11 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1791 American Flight history →	PHL 08:41	JAX 11:10	10%	2%	1.8%	81%
OH 5047 PSA	PHL 13:26	JAX 15:48	18%	4%	5.1%	no record
AA 1970 American Flight history →	PHL 21:08	JAX 23:11	22%	5%	2.1%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON