Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3005 PHL 18:05 → LAS 20:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 2280 PHL 09:36 → LAS 11:40 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3005 American Flight history →	PHL 18:05	LAS 20:30	9%	3%	0.6%	71%
AA 1529 American	PHL 16:23	LAS 18:51	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2280 American	PHL 09:36	LAS 11:40	10%	3%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 02m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	7h 35m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777	7h 16m	97%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON