Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2408 PHL 11:00 → LAX 13:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 2252 PHL 19:41 → LAX 22:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2408 American Flight history →	PHL 11:00	LAX 13:46	6%	2%	0.6%	83%
AA 1035 American Flight history →	PHL 07:05	LAX 09:52	6%	2%	0.7%	96%
AA 2944 American Flight history →	PHL 13:07	LAX 15:48	6%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 824 American Flight history →	PHL 10:03	LAX 12:37	7%	2%	0.7%	87%
AA 3123 American	PHL 17:30	LAX 19:57	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2252 American	PHL 19:41	LAX 22:25	11%	3%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	7h 49m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:36 → DTW 14:20DL 2331	1h 30m Detroit	DTW 15:50 → LAX 17:33DL 883	7h 57m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 07:30 → SLC 10:10DL 2023	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	7h 57m	98%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON