Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3103 at 07:01, 7%.

Safest bet that day WN 3103 PHL 07:01 → MCO 09:31 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 646 PHL 18:22 → MCO 20:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Weather 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3103 Southwest	PHL 07:01	MCO 09:31	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 1634 American	PHL 06:57	MCO 09:33	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 2084 American Flight history →	PHL 08:23	MCO 11:00	14%	3%	1.2%	78%
F9 1807 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 07:17	MCO 09:57	15%	4%	1.8%	78%
AA 3268 American Flight history →	PHL 11:03	MCO 13:54	16%	4%	1.3%	78%
AA 3153 American Flight history →	PHL 12:51	MCO 15:23	16%	6%	1.3%	88%
F9 2507 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 10:44	MCO 13:25	19%	6%	2.2%	70%
F9 2505 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 17:52	MCO 20:54	25%	12%	3.6%	63%
WN 2370 Southwest	PHL 14:17	MCO 16:31	30%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 2502 American Flight history →	PHL 14:07	MCO 16:45	30%	9%	1.9%	80%
F9 4173 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 15:51	MCO 18:34	32%	10%	5.2%	65%
AA 1673 American Flight history →	PHL 20:01	MCO 22:34	33%	13%	1.9%	53%
AA 646 American Flight history →	PHL 18:22	MCO 20:50	33%	10%	2.1%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON