Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 5040 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:36	MEM 12:15	15%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 5387 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:07	MEM 21:32	16%	5%	0.7%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	7h 07m	99%	90%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	2h 24m Charlotte	CLT 10:17 → MEM 11:12AA 1354	6h 12m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	6h 48m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 14:13 → MEM 14:38DL 1942	4h 58m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	6h 17m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → MEM 14:11DL 733	7h 06m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	58m Detroit	DTW 08:46 → MEM 09:46DL 1627	4h 36m	95%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → MEM 17:02DL 1681	6h 00m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON