Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1252 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1252 PHL 06:00 → MIA 08:56 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 1203 PHL 17:25 → MIA 20:26 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1252 American Flight history →	PHL 06:00	MIA 08:56	4%	2%	0.6%	89%
AA 3042 American	PHL 05:07	MIA 08:02	5%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2184 American Flight history →	PHL 08:15	MIA 11:12	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 1989 American	PHL 11:23	MIA 14:24	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2132 American	PHL 19:33	MIA 22:22	15%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 3306 American Flight history →	PHL 16:25	MIA 19:27	19%	8%	1.3%	75%
AA 3061 American	PHL 15:01	MIA 17:49	19%	7%	1.2%	no record
F9 1203 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 17:25	MIA 20:26	25%	9%	1.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON