Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 12–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day PT 6064 PHL 15:27 → MKE 16:37 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5561 PHL 08:25 → MKE 09:28 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 6064 Piedmont	PHL 15:27	MKE 16:37	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 5439 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 16:29	MKE 17:53	15%	5%	0.8%	60%
AA 5474 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:36	MKE 11:54	16%	5%	0.8%	89%
OH 5279 PSA	PHL 18:11	MKE 19:14	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
OH 5561 PSA	PHL 08:25	MKE 09:28	18%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON