Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:56 am at Philadelphia); 2 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today PT 5863 PHL 12:52 → MYR 14:24 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6105 PHL 16:57 → MYR 18:47 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


PT 5863 Piedmont	PHL 12:52	MYR 14:24	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
PT 6038 Piedmont	PHL 13:11	MYR 15:04	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 6105 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 16:57	MYR 18:47	14%	6%	0.4%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON