Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Omaha on time.

Nonstops that day


OH 5339 PSA	PHL 10:59	OMA 13:35	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 5545 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 18:07	OMA 20:23	16%	6%	0.7%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHL 05:41 → ORD 07:02AA 2386	2h 28m Chicago	ORD 09:30 → OMA 11:18AA 3739 · flown by Envoy	6h 37m	97%	89%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → OMA 10:27UA 1778	5h 27m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:45DL 1125	7h 20m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → OMA 10:12DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	5h 32m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364	8h 08m	100%	88%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	3h 11m Charlotte	CLT 11:04 → OMA 12:59AA 891	7h 59m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	51m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → OMA 09:28DL 2632	5h 13m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:36 → DTW 14:20DL 2331	1h 40m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest	5h 34m	98%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON