Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 660 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 660 PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2041 PHL 17:53 → ORD 18:59 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 660 United Flight history →	PHL 06:00	ORD 07:30	3%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 2095 American Flight history →	PHL 08:58	ORD 10:38	6%	3%	0.7%	81%
UA 2207 United Flight history →	PHL 11:38	ORD 13:06	6%	3%	0.5%	81%
UA 1811 United Flight history →	PHL 09:19	ORD 10:29	6%	3%	0.5%	87%
AA 3074 American Flight history →	PHL 07:42	ORD 09:10	7%	3%	0.7%	82%
UA 2784 United Flight history →	PHL 13:31	ORD 14:55	8%	4%	0.5%	76%
AA 2668 American	PHL 22:13	ORD 23:34	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 865 American	PHL 10:38	ORD 11:55	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1854 American Flight history →	PHL 12:42	ORD 13:53	9%	3%	0.7%	79%
AA 470 American Flight history →	PHL 15:46	ORD 17:30	9%	5%	0.7%	64%
AA 821 American	PHL 15:41	ORD 16:56	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2155 American	PHL 20:44	ORD 21:58	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 490 American Flight history →	PHL 19:40	ORD 20:59	13%	5%	0.7%	60%
UA 308 United Flight history →	PHL 17:00	ORD 18:33	13%	5%	0.5%	63%
UA 2665 United Flight history →	PHL 18:48	ORD 19:59	15%	5%	0.5%	55%
AA 2041 American	PHL 17:53	ORD 18:59	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON