Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 1787 Alaska Flight history →	PHL 17:46	PDX 20:37	13%	3%	0.7%	65%
AA 2245 American	PHL 20:04	PDX 22:58	15%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	3h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → PDX 12:38DL 2167	9h 58m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	2h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	8h 59m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	10h 43m	100%	91%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 19m Chicago	ORD 08:49 → PDX 11:07UA 751	8h 07m	99%	90%
American Details →	PHL 13:10 → LAX 16:06AA 2944	3h 20m Los Angeles	LAX 19:26 → PDX 22:05AA 6424 · flown by SkyWest	11h 55m	100%	90%
United Details →	PHL 10:00 → DEN 12:01UA 1537	3h 59m Denver	DEN 16:00 → PDX 17:44UA 1337	10h 44m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	9h 54m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 19:46 → PDX 21:55DL 691	10h 23m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON