Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 984 PHL 05:09 → PHX 07:08 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1984 PHL 00:12 → PHX 02:24 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 984 American	PHL 05:09	PHX 07:08	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 428 American Flight history →	PHL 07:05	PHX 09:05	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 478 American Flight history →	PHL 10:58	PHX 13:03	9%	3%	0.6%	93%
AA 2644 American	PHL 09:52	PHX 12:11	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 765 American Flight history →	PHL 13:23	PHX 15:35	11%	4%	0.6%	75%
AA 1984 American Flight history →	PHL 00:12	PHX 02:24	12%	3%	0.6%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	7h 04m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 09:47 → PHX 10:40DL 1053	7h 15m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	51m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348	6h 46m	96%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON