Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5879 PHL 05:54 → PIT 07:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2731 PHL 17:35 → PIT 18:54 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5879 Republic	PHL 05:54	PIT 07:23	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 5032 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 08:48	PIT 10:11	8%	3%	0.7%	71%
OH 5259 PSA	PHL 15:21	PIT 16:30	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
OH 5132 PSA	PHL 13:10	PIT 14:20	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2901 American Flight history →	PHL 19:45	PIT 21:05	11%	3%	0.6%	66%
AA 2731 American	PHL 17:35	PIT 18:54	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 6092 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 17:40	PIT 19:12	31%	11%	9.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON