Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Pensacola on time.

Nonstops that day


OH 5511 PSA	PHL 10:40	PNS 12:30	20%	6%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	49m Atlanta	ATL 08:08 → PNS 08:27DL 1539	4h 12m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	5h 26m	99%	85%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	2h 21m Charlotte	CLT 10:14 → PNS 11:04AA 2476	6h 04m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640	5h 55m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	5h 33m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	6h 01m	99%	83%
American Details →	PHL 04:52 → DFW 07:36AA 1751	1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:03 → PNS 10:57AA 3982 · flown by Envoy	7h 05m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → PNS 23:30DL 2807	7h 13m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON