Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4708 PHL 20:28 → PWM 22:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1889 PHL 17:57 → PWM 19:38 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4708 Republic	PHL 20:28	PWM 22:18	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
OH 5276 PSA	PHL 10:43	PWM 12:23	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1889 American Flight history →	PHL 17:57	PWM 19:38	14%	5%	0.7%	68%
AA 6124 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 08:50	PWM 10:31	9%	2%	1.7%	91%
AA 6125 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 16:54	PWM 18:34	21%	8%	2.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON