Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: F9 2059 at 09:28 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day F9 2059 PHL 09:28 → RDU 11:06 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 706 PHL 17:40 → RDU 19:11 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2059 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 09:28	RDU 11:06	9%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 1759 American	PHL 08:18	RDU 09:52	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3152 American	PHL 10:26	RDU 11:59	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5590 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 08:31	RDU 10:12	14%	6%	0.7%	62%
AA 2692 American	PHL 22:03	RDU 23:27	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
OH 5348 PSA	PHL 15:21	RDU 16:52	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 706 American Flight history →	PHL 17:40	RDU 19:11	21%	6%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON