Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2365 American Flight history →	PHL 08:48	RSW 11:50	13%	4%	2.3%	73%
AA 2439 American Flight history →	PHL 14:32	RSW 17:22	22%	6%	2.2%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 56m Chicago	ORD 09:26 → RSW 13:25UA 1036	7h 25m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	2h 36m Detroit	DTW 10:24 → RSW 13:24DL 1055	7h 14m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225	7h 36m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400	7h 47m	98%	85%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	2h 23m Charlotte	CLT 10:16 → RSW 12:23AA 1781	6h 23m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	46m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → RSW 09:43DL 1089	4h 28m	94%	84%
American Details →	PHL 04:52 → DFW 07:36AA 1751	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:52 → RSW 13:42AA 2740	8h 50m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153	5h 46m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON