tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1621 American Flight history → PHL 08:39 SAN 11:20 12% 3% 0.7% 90%
AA 3245 American Flight history → PHL 18:16 SAN 20:52 19% 4% 0.7% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791 1h 38m Minneapolis MSP 08:58 → SAN 10:42DL 2061 8h 02m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 16m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 8h 21m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 43m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 10:04 → SAN 11:43DL 843 9h 28m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → PHL 04:52 → DFW 07:36AA 1751 1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:21 → SAN 10:43AA 1058 8h 51m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:15 → IAH 08:44UA 584 3h 16m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 10h 06m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → SAN 19:37DL 712 10h 35m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968 1h 09m Detroit DTW 12:40 → SAN 14:18DL 761 7h 32m 94% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON