Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Antonio on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 2058 American Flight history →	PHL 17:31	SAT 20:15	18%	6%	0.6%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 55m Chicago	ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29UA 490	7h 29m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667	7h 09m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	8h 13m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968	2h 10m Detroit	DTW 13:41 → SAT 15:51DL 2458	7h 05m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 07:30 → SLC 10:10DL 2023	3h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:30 → SAT 17:23DL 2199	10h 53m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 08:20 → SAT 09:43DL 1676	5h 28m	97%	88%
United Details →	PHL 10:00 → DEN 12:01UA 1537	1h 43m Denver	DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022	7h 55m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009	8h 05m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON