Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day PT 6091 PHL 09:29 → SAV 11:37 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5273 PHL 20:00 → SAV 22:27 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 6091 Piedmont	PHL 09:29	SAV 11:37	10%	2%	1.2%	no record
AA 2708 American	PHL 13:43	SAV 15:45	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5204 PSA	PHL 09:06	SAV 11:28	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 5273 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:00	SAV 22:27	18%	3%	0.8%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON