Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2092 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2092 PHL 07:05 → SEA 10:01 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AS 1898 PHL 07:04 → SEA 09:33 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2092 Delta Flight history →	PHL 07:05	SEA 10:01	18%	3%	0.6%	72%
AA 2870 American Flight history →	PHL 08:28	SEA 11:19	20%	4%	0.7%	83%
AS 443 Alaska Flight history →	PHL 19:18	SEA 21:43	23%	3%	0.7%	66%
AA 1823 American	PHL 19:30	SEA 22:26	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 370 Alaska Flight history →	PHL 06:59	SEA 09:52	26%	3%	0.7%	65%
AS 1898 Alaska	PHL 07:04	SEA 09:33	30%	3%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 18:57 → MSP 20:53DL 2594	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	8h 01m	92%	84%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968	58m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	7h 43m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15DL 1391	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 20:34 → SEA 22:33DL 565	8h 05m	92%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON