Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1524 PHL 08:28 → SFO 11:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest UA 2352 PHL 09:18 → SFO 12:09 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1524 American Flight history →	PHL 08:28	SFO 11:29	10%	4%	0.6%	82%
AA 3295 American Flight history →	PHL 15:45	SFO 18:32	11%	5%	0.7%	81%
AA 2506 American	PHL 20:11	SFO 23:07	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2045 American Flight history →	PHL 17:44	SFO 20:40	13%	5%	0.7%	64%
UA 1575 United Flight history →	PHL 18:26	SFO 21:24	13%	4%	0.6%	59%
UA 2352 United	PHL 09:18	SFO 12:09	13%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	1h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	8h 36m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	8h 05m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:56DL 495	8h 24m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON