Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1977 at 09:26 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1977 PHL 09:26 → SJU 13:48 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1166 PHL 11:55 → SJU 15:57 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1977 American	PHL 09:26	SJU 13:48	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 614 American	PHL 09:33	SJU 13:41	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
B6 1047 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 12:38	SJU 16:30	20%	6%	0.7%	73%
F9 1016 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 06:29	SJU 10:29	20%	6%	1.2%	67%
F9 1166 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 11:55	SJU 15:57	28%	7%	1.0%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON