Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 2023 Delta Flight history →	PHL 07:30	SLC 10:10	7%	2%	0.5%	86%
AA 2630 American Flight history →	PHL 19:45	SLC 22:43	14%	5%	0.7%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 08:53 → SLC 10:42DL 8801	7h 02m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	8h 55m	100%	91%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 08:55 → SLC 11:39UA 1972	7h 39m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:00 → BOS 07:30DL 5740 · flown by Republic	3h 45m Boston	BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:20DL 464	10h 20m	100%	91%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	3h 07m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → SLC 13:46AA 1895	9h 46m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	9h 25m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:36 → DTW 14:20DL 2331	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765	8h 58m	100%	90%
American Details →	PHL 07:05 → PHX 09:05AA 428	1h 46m Phoenix	PHX 10:51 → SLC 13:31AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	8h 26m	99%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON