Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:39 am at Philadelphia)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 1065 at 08:20, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 1065 American	PHL 08:20	SRQ 11:03	15%	8%	0.8%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	58m Atlanta	ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52DL 3196	4h 37m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:16 → SRQ 12:54DL 3104	6h 29m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	2h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 09:36 → SRQ 13:47DL 478	8h 07m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 14:55 → SRQ 16:32DL 3115	5h 52m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 16:50 → ATL 18:58DL 2131	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 21:45 → SRQ 23:22DL 2997	6h 32m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → SRQ 21:36DL 1057	7h 04m	99%	83%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	2h 43m Charlotte	CLT 10:36 → SRQ 12:41AA 1452	6h 41m	100%	81%
American Details →	PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793	2h 47m Charlotte	CLT 18:32 → SRQ 20:23AA 5348 · flown by PSA	6h 34m	98%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON