Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1981 PHL 08:52 → TPA 11:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2269 PHL 20:07 → TPA 23:04 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1981 American	PHL 08:52	TPA 11:35	11%	2%	1.9%	no record
AA 2412 American Flight history →	PHL 12:45	TPA 15:19	13%	5%	2.1%	71%
AA 2015 American	PHL 10:37	TPA 13:13	13%	3%	1.9%	no record
F9 4807 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 12:10	TPA 14:53	16%	5%	3.2%	75%
AA 2322 American Flight history →	PHL 19:57	TPA 22:39	17%	6%	2.3%	62%
F9 2269 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 20:07	TPA 23:04	19%	8%	3.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON