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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Traverse City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest 7h 14m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → PHL 07:42 → ORD 09:10AA 3074 3h 03m Chicago ORD 12:13 → TVC 14:29AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 6h 47m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 10:55 → TVC 13:11AA 5575 · flown by PSA 7h 11m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540 2h 35m Detroit DTW 10:23 → TVC 11:34DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest 5h 24m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15DL 1391 3h 44m Detroit DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424 6h 40m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → PHL 08:58 → ORD 10:38AA 2095 1h 08m Chicago ORD 11:46 → TVC 14:04AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest 5h 06m 92% 75%
UnitedDetails → PHL 17:00 → ORD 18:33UA 308 3h 01m Chicago ORD 21:34 → TVC 23:46UA 2071 6h 46m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → PHL 13:31 → ORD 14:55UA 2784 3h 32m Chicago ORD 18:27 → TVC 20:41UA 677 7h 10m 95% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON