Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5212 PHL 08:28 → TYS 10:28 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5352 PHL 17:55 → TYS 19:44 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5212 PSA	PHL 08:28	TYS 10:28	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 5352 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 17:55	TYS 19:44	12%	6%	0.8%	77%
AA 5951 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 10:57	TYS 13:10	23%	8%	1.4%	77%
AA 5952 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 16:01	TYS 18:12	33%	13%	1.4%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON