Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4896 at 09:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 4896 PHX 09:09 → ABQ 11:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2571 PHX 16:50 → ABQ 19:04 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4896 Southwest	PHX 09:09	ABQ 11:22	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 1352 American Flight history →	PHX 08:41	ABQ 11:04	7%	3%	0.6%	92%
MQ 3879 Envoy	PHX 12:25	ABQ 14:44	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4325 Southwest	PHX 11:39	ABQ 13:48	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 972 Southwest	PHX 13:22	ABQ 15:35	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 3239 American	PHX 20:21	ABQ 22:49	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1587 Southwest	PHX 20:51	ABQ 23:04	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 2571 Southwest	PHX 16:50	ABQ 19:04	19%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON