Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 918 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 918 PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 2391 PHX 16:11 → ATL 22:50 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 918 Delta Flight history →	PHX 05:45	ATL 12:28	3%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 849 Delta	PHX 00:13	ATL 06:42	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 348 Delta Flight history →	PHX 10:14	ATL 17:00	9%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 901 Delta Flight history →	PHX 10:05	ATL 16:31	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 796 Delta Flight history →	PHX 15:14	ATL 21:54	9%	4%	0.6%	81%
WN 3359 Southwest	PHX 11:25	ATL 18:06	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2391 American Flight history →	PHX 16:11	ATL 22:50	19%	7%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON