Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3163 at 05:24 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 3163 PHX 05:24 → AUS 09:47 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 691 PHX 19:44 → AUS 23:57 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3163 Southwest	PHX 05:24	AUS 09:47	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 1059 American	PHX 08:45	AUS 13:30	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4339 Southwest	PHX 10:45	AUS 15:04	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 3535 SkyWest	PHX 10:56	AUS 15:27	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3164 Southwest	PHX 17:38	AUS 21:47	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2527 Southwest	PHX 14:16	AUS 18:24	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2892 American Flight history →	PHX 15:25	AUS 19:43	14%	5%	0.6%	70%
AA 892 American	PHX 16:01	AUS 20:39	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 691 American Flight history →	PHX 19:44	AUS 23:57	18%	6%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON