Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3165 at 06:24 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3165 PHX 06:24 → BNA 11:51 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 814 PHX 17:44 → BNA 22:56 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3165 Southwest	PHX 06:24	BNA 11:51	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3166 Southwest	PHX 09:41	BNA 14:55	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
AA 1370 American Flight history →	PHX 09:18	BNA 14:48	13%	3%	0.6%	67%
WN 3167 Southwest	PHX 11:29	BNA 16:40	14%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 2732 Southwest	PHX 14:04	BNA 19:15	15%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 814 Southwest	PHX 17:44	BNA 22:56	16%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON