Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4952 at 18:56 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4952 PHX 18:56 → BOI 22:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 1420 PHX 20:16 → BOI 23:16 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4952 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:56	BOI 22:04	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 4080 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 10:11	BOI 13:24	9%	2%	0.6%	71%
MQ 4175 Envoy	PHX 14:16	BOI 17:24	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3170 Southwest	PHX 11:17	BOI 14:20	14%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 1420 Southwest	PHX 20:16	BOI 23:16	20%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON