Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 514 PHX 22:14 → BOS 06:07 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest AA 2778 PHX 12:58 → BOS 20:56 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 514 Delta Flight history →	PHX 22:14	BOS 06:07	10%	3%	0.6%	70%
AA 1245 American	PHX 08:55	BOS 16:53	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 567 American Flight history →	PHX 15:15	BOS 23:14	14%	4%	0.6%	70%
AA 2778 American Flight history →	PHX 12:58	BOS 20:56	16%	5%	0.6%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 14:01 → BOS 16:09DL 1171	7h 09m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BOS 16:50DL 2558	7h 05m	95%	86%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	48m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	6h 44m	95%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON