Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3172 at 06:49 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 3172 PHX 06:49 → BUR 08:12 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3177 PHX 19:31 → BUR 21:00 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3172 Southwest	PHX 06:49	BUR 08:12	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4227 Envoy	PHX 08:01	BUR 09:35	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 4938 Southwest	PHX 10:09	BUR 11:37	8%	1%	0.8%	no record
OO 6246 SkyWest	PHX 14:41	BUR 17:08	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3887 Southwest	PHX 14:54	BUR 16:26	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3174 Southwest	PHX 11:54	BUR 13:24	11%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 3177 Southwest	PHX 19:31	BUR 21:00	13%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON