Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1417 at 06:39 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 1417 PHX 06:39 → BWI 14:08 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 118 PHX 11:53 → BWI 19:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1417 Southwest	PHX 06:39	BWI 14:08	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3179 Southwest	PHX 23:06	BWI 06:18	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2900 Southwest	PHX 10:49	BWI 18:02	15%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 118 Southwest	PHX 11:53	BWI 19:15	15%	2%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	54m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	6h 17m	96%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON