Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3809 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 3809 PHX 08:51 → CID 14:18 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OO 4935 PHX 16:16 → CID 21:18 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3809 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 08:51	CID 14:18	9%	1%	0.7%	93%
MQ 4019 Envoy	PHX 12:26	CID 17:52	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 4935 SkyWest	PHX 16:16	CID 21:18	28%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON