tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Cleveland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 3h 41m Minneapolis MSP 15:31 → CLE 18:32DL 1118 8h 47m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545 6h 35m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356 1h 52m Chicago ORD 14:20 → CLE 16:54UA 1502 7h 04m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 48m Denver DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619 5h 36m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → CLE 22:26DL 1339 9h 12m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:07 → ORD 18:33UA 1842 2h 47m Chicago ORD 21:20 → CLE 23:49UA 457 7h 42m 100% 86%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 16:32 → SEA 19:17AS 401 2h 56m Seattle SEA 22:13 → CLE 05:43 +1AS 269 10h 11m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274 1h 51m Minneapolis MSP 20:51 → CLE 23:43DL 1392 6h 52m 97% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON