Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3009 PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1617 PHX 12:23 → CLT 19:34 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3009 American Flight history →	PHX 05:00	CLT 12:09	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
AA 2821 American Flight history →	PHX 23:28	CLT 06:40	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 871 American	PHX 06:20	CLT 13:24	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1688 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	CLT 15:48	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 665 American	PHX 09:52	CLT 17:03	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1591 American	PHX 14:29	CLT 21:31	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1617 American	PHX 12:23	CLT 19:34	13%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	57m Denver	DEN 09:49 → CLT 15:03UA 2231	6h 03m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	PHX 15:14 → ATL 21:54DL 796	47m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	5h 44m	86%	79%
American Details →	PHX 09:18 → BNA 14:48AA 1370	1h 04m Nashville	BNA 15:52 → CLT 18:07AA 1136	5h 49m	88%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON