Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2900 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 2900 PHX 08:55 → CMH 15:47 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 351 PHX 15:19 → CMH 21:53 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2900 American Flight history →	PHX 08:55	CMH 15:47	16%	3%	0.8%	83%
AA 1399 American	PHX 08:55	CMH 15:43	16%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2493 Southwest	PHX 09:20	CMH 16:06	18%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 351 Southwest	PHX 15:19	CMH 21:53	26%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON