tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1194 Southwest PHX 12:55 COS 15:31 15% 3% 0.4% no record
WN 2183 Southwest PHX 17:15 COS 19:54 17% 4% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Colorado Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Colorado Springs is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 15:51 → COS 17:35DL 4449 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → PHX 17:05 → SLC 19:43DL 1738 1h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 20:59 → COS 22:41DL 3788 · flown by SkyWest 4h 36m 96% 91%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655 1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:28 → COS 12:37AA 6390 · flown by SkyWest 6h 27m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 3h 35m Denver DEN 15:35 → COS 16:32UA 5546 · flown by SkyWest 6h 24m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 53m Denver DEN 09:45 → COS 10:46UA 5306 · flown by SkyWest 3h 46m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:22 → DEN 16:11UA 709 2h 54m Denver DEN 19:05 → COS 20:01UA 4793 · flown by SkyWest 5h 39m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:31 → DEN 16:27UA 1615 3h 23m Denver DEN 19:50 → COS 20:46UA 5669 · flown by SkyWest 6h 15m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → PHX 06:10 → DFW 10:42AA 1018 2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:41 → COS 14:49AA 1170 7h 39m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON