tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Hebron on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2990 American Flight history → PHX 10:05 CVG 16:51 15% 3% 0.6% 88%
SY 3090 Sun Country PHX 07:29 CVG 14:07 19% 3% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:09 → MIA 07:30AA 2263 1h 19m Miami MIA 08:49 → CVG 11:39AA 3472 · flown by Envoy 8h 30m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 1h 33m Detroit DTW 14:21 → CVG 15:39DL 5446 · flown by Endeavor 6h 39m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:05 → ORD 15:38AA 332 2h 49m Chicago ORD 18:27 → CVG 20:53AA 4507 · flown by Republic 7h 48m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → PHX 01:15 → ORD 06:50AA 1148 3h 24m Chicago ORD 10:14 → CVG 12:29AA 3950 · flown by Envoy 8h 14m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 1h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273 6h 03m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 12:38 → DTW 19:15DL 1070 2h 21m Detroit DTW 21:36 → CVG 22:59DL 5478 · flown by Endeavor 7h 21m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008 7h 56m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 1h 00m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → CVG 15:39DL 3113 5h 54m 95% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON