Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1542 at 23:52 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 1542 PHX 23:52 → DCA 07:14 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1787 PHX 13:17 → DCA 20:40 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1542 American Flight history →	PHX 23:52	DCA 07:14	11%	3%	2.1%	89%
AA 3191 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	DCA 15:59	15%	3%	1.3%	85%
AA 1620 American	PHX 08:59	DCA 16:43	18%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 3231 American	PHX 13:14	DCA 20:46	26%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 1787 American Flight history →	PHX 13:17	DCA 20:40	27%	6%	1.2%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON